Big Ten overrated, SEC underrated lead college football overreactions from Week 12
Published 18 November 2024
As Oscar Wilde famously observed, there is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about. So it is that our attention here at Overreaction HQ is largely devoted to the endless debate among fan bases advocating for their teams and/or against others now that most of the college football regular season is in the books.
These arguments are fed by the weekly release of the College Football Playoff Committee rankings, which essentially mean nothing until the final bracket is determined. Though often tiresome, however, such discussions are also viewed as a feature rather than a bug, especially by those whose job it is to opine on the state of the sport. Yes, that includes us.
Here are the top five overreactions causing the most noise after Week 12.
The Big Ten is overrated.
The at-large pool for the 12-team field is limited to seven teams as currently constructed. It is largely accepted that three of those seven slots will go to Big Ten teams, barring some truly shocking results over the final two weeks. That will give the conference four playoff participants in all, including the eventual league champ.
Unsurprisingly, most of the loudest voices questioning the resumes of the projected Big Ten invitees are coming from SEC territory. We’ll address that league’s case in a moment. But we’ll say this much for the Big Ten foursome currently occupying 80% of the top five in the US LBM Coaches Poll. They’ve all avoided damaging losses against the conference’s mid- and bottom-tier teams.
We’ll also add this. One frequently heard argument runs along the lines of, for example, Alabama would absolutely be favored in a game against Indiana. Even if that were true, the committee does not consider that – at all. Oddsmakers set lines based upon public perception. Their purpose is not to predict the final margin but to equalize the wagers on both sides. The fact that underdogs frequently win outright anyway, so the notion that a team potentially being favored in a given matchup carries no weight in seeding or bracketing discussions.
The SEC is underrated
The more grounded argument from SEC advocates is its contenders have faced stiffer competition week-to-week and should get more credit for their tougher schedules, which will naturally produce more losses among the candidates as they knock each other off. But while it’s true that the SEC is deeper, the league also lacks a true juggernaut this season. There are a lot of very good teams, but none are so good that they can’t be picked off on a given day.