Trump is in a better polling spot now than he was against Clinton or Biden
Published 5:05 a.m. Oct. 12, 2024
Donald Trump trails Kamala Harris in most 2024 polls. But the margin now is smaller than he faced in his first two general elections in 2016 and 2020.
WASHINGTON - If polls are any guide - and there are many questions about them - Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in better shape now than he was at this time in 2020 and in his winning White House campaign of 2016.
Yes, Trump trails Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in most polls. But the all-important caveat is that he's down against the incumbent vice president by smaller margins than he faced in his first two general elections - both of which saw him score higher with actual voters than the ones who responded to pollsters.
Certainly, Republicans are counting on what some pollsters have called the "hidden Trump vote," although pollsters also say there's no certainty that group still exists. During a rally Wednesday in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump claimed to have a poll showing him up 3 percentage points in the Keystone State, "which probably means 10."
The Trump campaign, which lost the 2016 popular vote to Democrat Hillary Clinton by a little more than 2 percentage points but won enough states to prevail in the Electoral College, also follows the theory that the closer the national polls in 2024, the better his chances to win more electoral votes.
That's not a given, the pollsters said.
During this cycle, pollsters have changed their methodologies, in part to account for the “ hidden” Trump voters; including people who plan to vote for him but don’t want to say it publicly, or other supporters who are hard to find via traditional polling methods like telephone calls. Also, different groups of voters are showing more signs of increased participation in the election because of new issues, from anti-abortion laws to the rising cost of living.
"There are fundamentals in question that no one can answer until Election Day," said pollster Frank Luntz.
Also, the national polls are less important than individual state polls, and they're pretty much tied as well. Most polls are well within the margin of error in the seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.