Ukraine war: Can Europe deter Russia without US military?


Ukraine war: Can Europe deter Russia without US military?

Jonathan Beale Defence correspondent, 02/28/2025 onald Trump appears to have more confidence in the capabilities of Britain's armed forces than some of his own generals - or, for that matter, many of Britain's retired military top brass. When asked at his news conference with the UK prime minister about US security guarantees for Ukraine, Trump said: "The British have incredible soldiers, incredible military and they can take care of themselves." However, the US president did leave the question hanging in the air as to whether the UK military could take on Russia. In public, senior US military officers are quick to praise the professionalism of Britain's armed forces. But in private, they're often highly critical of recent cuts to their size, especially to the British Army, which now has just over 70,000 regular troops. "Too small" is what one very senior US general said in a private briefing on a visit to the UK. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Russia's military expenditure is now higher than Europe's total defence spending, in terms of purchasing parity power. It's increased by 41% and is now the equivalent of 6.7% of GDP. In contrast, the UK will be spending just 2.5% by 2027. President Trump's comments underscore the reality that he's not contemplating putting American troops on the ground in Ukraine to police any ceasefire. Any US presence will be economic, to exploit mining interests. He suggests that that in itself might be a deterrent to Russia attacking again. But even his administration thinks there must be some hard power too - provided by others. It'll be up to European nations to do that. The question is not just whether Europe has the will: does it have the numbers too? The short answer is no. That is why Sir Keir Starmer has been pressing for additional US security guarantees from the world's most powerful military. Britain is not alone in cutting its armed forces in response to the end of the Cold War. That trend in Europe is slowly being reversed, with more nations increasing defence spending. But Europe, on its own, would not be able to provide a force of 100-200,000 international troops, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggests would be needed to deter Russia from attacking again. Instead, Western officials have said they're thinking of a force of up to 30,000 troops. European jets and warships would help monitor Ukraine's airspace and shipping lanes. That force would be focused on providing "reassurance" at key sites - Ukraine's cities, ports and nuclear power stations. They would not be placed anywhere near the current front lines in Eastern Ukraine. European fighter jets and warships would also monitor Ukraine's air space and shipping lanes.